Hurricane Season 2013: The Lessons of Sandy

A rare event is not an impossible event.

Just ask the emergency response teams in the German city of Passau, built at the intersection of the Danube, the Inn, and the Ilz rivers. In recent weeks, Passau has experienced its worst flooding since 1501 – a 500-year flood!

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, after surveying the damage in the wake of Sandy, the second tropical cyclone to buffet New York City in two years, expressed the concerns of many public safety officials and business continuity professionals when he remarked, “We have a 100-year flood every two years now … it’s undeniable that we have a higher frequency of these extreme weather situations, and we’re going to have to deal with it.”

Meteorologists offer forecasts that suggest this is not just a layman’s perception. AccuWeather and other sources predict that 2013 will be yet another above-average year for Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms, as were the years 2010, 2011, and 2012. What is more, there are early-season indications that this year’s storms may be, on the average, stronger than usual. And another mid-Atlantic landfall by a hurricane or tropical storm cannot be ruled out this season.

The basic principles of hurricane preparedness for businesses and public safety organizations in the light of such a seasonal forecast are well-established – a written plan, proactive preparations well in advance of the season, and frequent practice drills. But while the general principles have not changed, the experience in recent storms – including last year’s Hurricane Sandy – suggest some new areas for focus.

When a hurricane hits the Mid-Atlantic coast or the Northeast, multi-state, massive power failures occur. Parts of 13 states lost power in the wake of Sandy. Many businesses experienced seven days of power outage – and not just in New Jersey, where the storm made landfall. The key point: even if you are not near landfall, your business and community can be mightily affected. You must have a plan to deal with extended power outages.

In a seven-day power outage, the solution is not just having a generator, because you will need fuel resupply to continue to operate. And widespread power outages may well mean local suppliers are unable to help you, because they need electricity to move fuel from underground tanks to delivery trucks.

Sandy makes clear that a best practice now for business continuity is to enter into what the fuel industry calls a “premium contract.” It puts you at the top of the list and you get refilled when others don’t. And choose a supplier at least 200 miles inland. You pay an incremental transport charge, but you reduce the risk that their facility is also affected by the outage.

Consider too that your business telephone system has more points of failure than it once did. Business phone systems now use commercial power. And more and more business is done from mobile devices. The rub is that, whereas the land lines of years ago had a separate, highly resilient power supply, cell towers rely on commercial power with only limited battery backup.

Hurricane Sandy knocked out a quarter of the cell towers across a ten-state area from Virginia to Massachusetts. Again, remember that Sandy’s landfall was in New Jersey, but the area of impact was far larger! Of course, carriers had prudently positioned emergency generators before the storm to keep many other towers operating. But within a day after landfall, the Federal Communications Commission was already warning that some of these emergency generators could run out of fuel before commercial power was restored.

This was not an isolated effect. The FCC reported that 2011’s Irene knocked out 6,500 cell towers from North Carolina to Vermont. At the peak of the outage, 44 percent of all cell towers in Vermont were out of service.

In this situation, one or more satellite phones are a prudent investment. The phones themselves are now as low as $695. Some extra batteries and an antenna that allows you to use the phone indoors bring the total to about $1,000. Remember to periodically check the battery charge, program key numbers in advance, and practice the use of the phone once a month so you can quickly use it in an emergency. You will also want to have a thoughtful policy regarding who can and should use the satellite phone, and under what circumstances.

A large storm surge is the main impact from hurricanes. Sandy buffeted parts of New York with a surge that significantly exceeded 100-year levels. Storm-driven flooding of basements and ground floors led to well-publicized disruptions of operations at facilities such as New York University’s Langone Medical Center and the Veterans Administration Hospital in Kips Bay. However, the effects of the storm surge were also felt by businesses beyond the area of immediate flooding due to its impact on digital communications.

The interruption of commercial power in the key communications hub of southern Manhattan forced many data centers and phone company facilities to switch to backup generators. Some of these in turn fell victim to basement flooding and other storm-related failures. As a result, several Internet service providers and data centers – and, consequently, a number of very visible on-line media sites – were off-line for a time in the wake of Sandy.

The lesson for your business is to review your data and digital communications resilience. Reconsider whether key operational elements such as generators, electrical switches, mechanical systems, fire suppression, and communications systems are safe in a traditional basement location. And apply the same 200-mile thought process recommended for generator fuel to the digital side of your enterprise. Ensure that all computer files are backed up remotely at locations where there is likely to be power when your own vicinity is down. Consult with your data communications and Internet service providers to confirm that they have a similar distributed-facility strategy that allows them to switch operations during an outage at their home location. And know where these locations are. The nature of the Internet is that the servers that support your website are likely to be several states away from your headquarters.

Here’s another reason to take action now: These additions to your preparedness plan will stand you in good stead with more than just hurricanes. Consider these other recent power and mobile outages:

• The June 2012 derecho – a type of powerful, long-lasting, straight-line windstorm that is associated with a band of severe thunderstorms – caused problems from Iowa to Washington, DC and New Jersey. 3.8 million customers were without power, and one wireless carrier in the DC area reported a quarter of its cell towers down at various times during the emergency.
• An October 2011 blizzard left two million New Englanders without power for up to seven days, with outages from Pennsylvania to New Hampshire. Connecticut state officials reported one-third of the cell towers in the state failed before commercial power was restored.

Modern digital communications have transformed the way that we do business. But recent storms demonstrate how easy it is for these to go dark – and stay offline for multiple days. A review of your power, telecommunications, and data resilience is the prudent immediate step to take in response to the forecast of another active hurricane season in 2013.

Dan Kottlowski, chief hurricane forecaster for AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions, has also served as an advisor to the Forecast Improvement Program at NOAA’s National Hurricane Center.