El Niño conditions have contributed to an extraordinary stretch of tropical activity in the Pacific Basin this hurricane season, with three named storms impacting the Hawaiian Islands in less than a month. Two of those hurricanes contributed to billions in damages and economic loss, including a new AccuWeather preliminary estimate of $5 to $7 billion from Hurricane Lowell which impacted the Islands this week.
This active pattern across the basin is likely to continue throughout the fall, and AccuWeather experts believe the Pacific Basin could continue producing storms after hurricane season ends in November.
“El Niño brings lower wind shear and warmer water to this part of the tropics, so it’s certainly possible that we see storms or hurricanes still developing much later this year, and we’ve seen this before during El Niño winters,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva.
El Niño Could Extend Pacific Tropical Activity into Winter
In the satellite era (beginning in 1966), only ten named storms have formed in the Central or Eastern Pacific Basins during the winter months (Dec-Feb), four of which came during El Niño winters. Two of those storms have impacted Hawaii including, Tropical Storm Winona (1989), which was a newly formed tropical depression as it passed the islands, and Hurricane Nina (1957) which passed about 120 miles west-southwest of Kauai in early December as a category 1 hurricane.
Direct impacts on Hawaii remain statistically rare, but Hurricanes Lala and Lowell have each passed close enough to Hawaii to bring heightened concerns to the islands, while Tropical Storm Moke grazed the islands. AccuWeather hurricane experts say the unusually busy stretch comes as a strong El Niño fuels increased tropical activity across the Eastern and Central Pacific.
"El Niño has helped create an environment that is much more favorable for tropical activity across the Pacific this season," added DaSilva. "Hawaii is a relatively small target in a very large ocean, so having three named storms affect or pass close to the islands in a matter of weeks is remarkable. This is exactly why we highlighted an increased risk of direct tropical impacts on Hawaii before the season began."
Three Storms in Less Than a Month
Hurricane Lala passed about 30 miles south of the Big Island in mid-August as a Category 1 hurricane, unleashing extreme rainfall, damaging winds and widespread power outages. More than 40 inches of rain was reported in the high terrain of the Big Island, and roughly 70% of the island lost power at the peak of the storm. AccuWeather issued a preliminary estimate of $3 billion to $5 billion in total damages and economic loss.
Tropical Storm Moke followed about a week later, passing just south of Hawaii. While Moke did not pass close enough to be considered a direct impact, the storm did bring another round of tropical moisture, rough surf and locally heavy rain while communities were still recovering from Lala.
Hurricane Lowell became the latest powerful hurricane to threaten the islands this week. After reaching Category 5 strength over the open Pacific, Lowell turned north and passed 35 to 40 miles west of Ni’ihau, the westernmost inhabited Hawaiian island, bringing flooding rain, strong winds and dangerous surf. At least one death was reported in connection to the storm, which brought some of the most significant impacts to Kaua’i and Ni’ihau.
AccuWeather issued a preliminary estimate of $5 billion to $7 billion in total damages and economic loss from Hurricane Lowell. Among the greatest impacts were flooding from up to 24 inches of rain on Kaua’i and widespread power outages, with more than 60,000 customers losing electricity statewide, including roughly 90% of Kaua’i.
Hawaii Has Seen Active Seasons Before
While having multiple named storms affect Hawaii in one season is unusual, it is not unprecedented. One of the closest recent comparisons came in 2018, when Hector, Lane, and Olivia all affected the islands within a span of several weeks.
What makes 2026 particularly notable is the concentration of activity, with Lala, Moke and Lowell all demanding Hawaii’s attention in less than a month.
El Niño typically promotes increased tropical activity in the Central Pacific. The climate pattern can weaken trade winds and create atmospheric conditions more favorable for tropical systems to develop, strengthen and travel farther across the Pacific.
AccuWeather expert meteorologists are available to talk about updates, storm reports, and interviews during severe weather. They can be reached outside standard business hours at support@accuweather.com or 814-235-8710.
