Hurricane Melissa Dominated an Otherwise Typical 2025 Season

A Quiet Coastline, a Catastrophic Storm: Inside the 2025 Hurricane Season

With 13 tropical storms, five hurricanes and four major hurricanes (Category 3 or above), the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season was very close to the 1991 to 2020 average defined by NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and on the lower side of the pre-season forecasts. Among other factors, dry air moving in from the Sahara and a high-pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico created unfavorable conditions for the formation of more storms. Moreover, only three storms (Barry, Chantal and Melissa) made landfall. But why?

Enter the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) – a pressure system in the Atlantic Ocean that helps direct a storm’s pattern. By controlling the position of the Bermuda (or Azores) High (a semi-permanent center of high atmospheric pressure in the Atlantic Ocean), the NAO also influences the direction of general storm paths for major North Atlantic tropical cyclones: when the Bermuda High is further to the south, it tends to force storms into the Gulf of Mexico, whereas a northern position allows them to track up the North American Atlantic coast. The latter is the case this year, and it helped to keep most cyclones out in the ocean. The 2025 hurricane season was the first in 10 years without a US hurricane landfall and the first since 2019 without a tropical cyclone directly hitting Florida.

While the overall numbers for the 2025 hurricane season are close to average, the accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), which is a measure of a storm’s potential for wind destruction, was 9% above the 1991 to 2020 average. By this measure, the 2025 season classifies as above average, comparable to the 2018 and 2019 seasons, but with a lower total hurricane count. This means the hurricanes that did form were particularly strong and long-lived. Among the four major hurricanes, Erin, Humberto and Melissa reached Category 5 strength, making the 2025 hurricane season the second highest on record for Category 5 storm count, just behind the 2005 season, which recorded four.

Deep dive: Hurricane Melissa and climate change

A hurricane’s intensity is typically described by two main metrics: surface and wind speed. With a minimum center pressure of 892mb (the third lowest ever recorded) and maximum sustained winds of 298km/h (185mph), the second highest recorded, Melissa is preliminarily tied with the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane and 2019’s Hurricane Dorian for the strongest landfall ever recorded in the Atlantic basin. This means the combination of Melissa’s minimum center pressure and peak sustained winds at the moment of landfall is what makes it one of the strongest landfalling hurricanes ever, even if each of the metrics themselves is not the strongest ever recorded.

Hurricane Melissa brought catastrophic wind damage, extensive flooding and landslides, which left widespread infrastructure damage and power loss in the Caribbean. In southwestern Jamaica, especially in the Westmoreland, St. Elizabeth and Manchester parishes, approximately 116,000 structures sustained severe or catastrophic damage. In areas like Black River, it is estimated between 65% to 90% of the buildings were damaged or destroyed. The storm’s slow forward speed (around 8km/h or 5mph) prolonged extreme winds and rainfall across Jamaica.

At least 79 fatalities, 117 injuries and up to six million affected people have been reported across Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Moody’s RMS estimates an insured loss between $3bn and $5bn while the economic losses from Melissa remain unclear with estimates running from single-digit billions of dollars to potentially exceeding $20bn (which would be above Jamaica’s GDP).

A study from Imperial College London has estimated that compared to the pre-industrial era, the current climate increased Melissa’s maximum wind speed by 7% and the storm’s resulting economic damage by 25%. Among other factors, Melissa’s rapid intensification can be attributed to the storm slowly drifting through unusually warm sea waters: the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Central Caribbean Sea were, on average, 1.4°C above the mid-to-late October average. According to Climate Central, these conditions are up to 800 times more likely due to human-induced climate change.

It is anticipated that after the passage of Melissa, the Government of Jamaica will receive nearly $250mn from a World Bank parametric bond and the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF) tropical cyclone and excess rainfall parametric insurance policies. This highlights the importance of innovative risk transfer methods and access to alternative capital as a means to recover from natural catastrophes. It is essential that not only individuals and businesses, but also countries, become aware of their disaster risk and aim towards increasing their resilience and having a well-developed disaster risk financing strategy.

The 2025 North Atlantic hurricane season was a reminder that even in a close-to-average season, a single storm can leave profound impacts on communities and economies. As climate change drives the development of stronger, more intense cyclones, the need for enhanced preparedness and resilience strategies becomes crucial. By fostering a better understanding of disaster risks and investing in robust financing strategies, individuals, businesses and countries can better safeguard themselves and their assets against future catastrophes.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Mabé Villar Vega

Mabé Villar Vega is a senior catastrophe risk research analyst at Allianz Commercial.