Devastating wildfires are still burning in and around Los Angeles. There is much discussion about the already challenging California insurance market becoming even more complex. First and foremost, the real-time focus should be on dousing the flames and driving a resilient recovery. The viability of insurers and their continued ability to meaningfully serve their role in the economy will be discussed in the months ahead.

A key focus in California and elsewhere should be ensuring insurance companies and regulators have the right tools to understand the changing risks in their portfolios. The catastrophe modeling configurations available to insurers and emergency managers today are often outdated. However, outdated does not mean wrong; it means modernization is possible.

In the days after hurricanes Helene and Milton devasted the East Coast in late 2024, my inbox filled with pleas from insurance brokers and underwriters to help them address mounting uncertainties. The rapid intensification of hurricanes Helene and Milton was a worrisome signal for catastrophe planners. That worry grows in real-time as Los Angeles is clouded in smoke from historically devastating fires.

We need to unite the next generation of researchers in engineering, natural hazard science, climate science, and social science to understand today’s changing disaster landscape better so we can prepare for tomorrow.

You can only realistically debate whether rates are too high or too low after you understand the right rate. Key to understanding risk is the availability of accurate catastrophe modeling.

Catastrophic modeling is a simulation process that estimates the potential losses from catastrophic events. It’s used by municipalities, insurers, and regulators to assess risk and prepare. These models use a variety of data sources – historical, demographic, geographic, engineering, and scientific data all play a part. The more information you can feed into models, the more accurate the predictions become.

Innovations in thought and technology must be incorporated to enable faster analysis of greater volumes of data. The world’s disaster landscape is evolving simultaneously with advances in materials science, engineering science, and societal expectations. These factors need to be combined to provide newer, more accurate predictions of future risk.

Bunkers are very safe, but nobody wants to live in a bunker. Engineers can design for any target risk. Stronger structures, however, come at a cost more complicated than pure dollars and cents. Resilience is a social, political, and behavioral decision that necessitates give and take.

Anecdotally, the wildfires in Los Angeles hit at a time coinciding with an unsettling anniversary in the development of catastrophe modeling. Many who have faced flames in 2025 vividly remember the Northridge earthquake 31 years ago. Northridge dramatically increased awareness of the need for catastrophe modeling and changed how we think about resilience and readiness.

Unprecedented fires in California, burning as recovery is just beginning from historic hurricanes on the opposite coast illustrate that the time is again upon us to change the way we think.

The number of natural disasters is increasing, leading to significant global losses, and requiring substantial restoration efforts. This issue challenges decision-makers to act promptly and effectively to protect people and infrastructure systems from future natural hazards and adopt platforms that minimize uncertainty – supporting informed disaster mitigation decisions.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Paolo Bocchini

Dr. Paolo Bocchini is professor and director of the Center for Catastrophe Modeling and Resilience at Lehigh University. He also serves as the director of graduate programs in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering. His research deals with catastrophe modeling and community resilience under natural disasters to support decisions on design, retrofit, preparedness, damage mitigation, and recovery of critical infrastructure systems.

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